Updating Priors: Evolving Perspectives

People change and if you're not paying attention, you won't notice

Read time: 7 minutes

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We all have those friends from college who were complete idiots. Who drank too much, didn’t study enough, and generally didn’t seem to have it figured out. These people were the ones you wondered about. How the hell did they pass their classes? What are they up to these days? Sometimes it’s hard to believe that that guy is doing anything productive with his life, even 10 years after graduation.

I know we all know about those guys because, to a certain extent, I was one of those guys. I did fine in school but there were definitely people who (fairly) wondered how I would handle the freedom and responsibility of post-grad life. 

But that’s not the person I am today. I’m proud to say that in the 8 years since graduation, I’ve grown up a lot. Most of what I do at this point is non-destructive and a decent percentage of my actions are taken to improve myself. I say this not to brag but because I realize that I’ve truly become a better version of myself and that, if there were any testament to people’s ability to change, I am evidence of it.

I also say this to remind myself that if I of all people can unshackle myself from definitions that used to fit me, then what am I doing assuming that other people can’t do the same?

It’s perfectly reasonable to assume that the way that people were is the way that they are today. In fact, for a portion of the population that’s probably true. It’s also true that people can change a lot and if you are going to take someone at face value ten years ago, you might as well do the same with how they are today.

That assumption -the idea that people are the same as they were before -  is a version of the concept of a “prior”. A prior is an assumption about something based on previous experience or knowledge. To establish a prior you must first take in information and build a mental model of the “thing” in question.

Establishing a prior is useful in the way that it helps us predict how people will behave and make better prospective decisions.

Maya Angelou said, “When people show you who they are, believe them the first time.” While maybe not the universal truth that thousands of Tumblr users make it out to be, this quote does contain within it a useful nugget. Generally, it is good practice to view someone’s actions as indicators of their personality and moral standards. When someone does something unethical or selfish or [insert negative adjective here] you should take that as evidence of their true self and adjust your perspective of them accordingly. You should also do the same when someone does something positive, but that is often more difficult because of the negativity bias we all struggle to overcome.

When someone does something, positive or negative, your brain naturally creates a prior for their behavior. The more negative the reaction you have to the action, the more deeply the prior will be ingrained in your subconscious.

This is good advice, generally. When someone acts idiotic you can and should safely assume that they are an idiot or have their priorities in such an order that acting idiotic is something they’re okay with. Then moving forward you treat them as you would someone who has idiotic tendencies (like many did for me circa 2014).

The problem with this and with priors as a whole is that it takes much more evidence to change a belief than it does to create one at the start. For example, if someone got drunk at a party and threw up everywhere it would take you seeing them drunk at a party and not throwing up many more times to believe that’s not something they usually do. Even if the prior was based on one experience, changing it takes much more effort.

To further emphasize the implications of priors let’s go through another example.

Let’s say someone you knew in high school was incredibly arrogant and a bit of a bully. This person was condescending and was exhausting to be around. The prior you established, fairly, would be that this person brings bad energy around and is someone with whom you’d rather not associate.

Years later you run into them out at a bar. Unknowingly you carry that prior with you into that interaction and you start seeing the arrogance, even if it’s not really there. The interaction goes the same as any other. You ask what they’re up to and they tell you about the great job they have. They do the same for you but you only interpret it as a way for them to put you down. They then offer to buy you a drink but instead of welcoming the gesture, you take it as a sign of them showing off how much money they have. You leave the interaction assured that they are still an ass and go back to your friends to tell them about the jerk you just bumped into.

This is just an example but you can see the pitfall here. They may have just acted like every other person you run into after a long hiatus of not seeing them, but you are running all of their behavior through the lens of your prior on who they are as a person. Instead of seeing them objectively, you are only seeing behaviors in a way that confirms what you already “know” about the person.

This has a couple of consequences. First, carrying these priors into the future gets in the way of our ability to think rationally about a situation and evaluate it objectively. Additionally, when you treat people as if they haven’t changed since high school they assume the same about you. Which, if you’re like most people, is something you’d prefer to avoid. When you update your view on people, you encourage them to do the same, making it much easier to build an amicable relationship.

Of course, priors do save time and many people don’t change. Once you’ve come to a decision on how you feel about a person it may not be worth it to reevaluate that relationship. 

The other way to look at it is to see these priors as mechanisms that prevent you from seeing the world objectively. They prevent you from seeing people how they are today and instead keep you stuck in a perspective you may have settled on years ago. Sure, those guys from high school who are doing the same things with the same people probably aren’t that much different from who they were back then. But what about the people you haven’t seen in years and don’t know that much about? Are they the same person? Or is it likely that you’re just assuming they are because you have a prior about them and are less likely to consider new evidence.

I would argue that updating your priors and letting people show you who they really are today is a valuable exercise. People change, they grow, they become better versions of themselves and you could be selling yourself short on a valuable relationship if you don’t update your understanding of who they are. I’ve personally benefited a lot from people updating their perspective on me. This isn’t a sweeping call to reevaluate all of the people in your life, maybe just a subtle suggestion to ask yourself “Am I treating this person based on who they are right now, or based on who they have been in the past?” The answers to questions like these could lead to you to reevaluate some relationships, and I hope, for the better.